Filgotinib in the Induction and Maintenance of Remission in Adults With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (213 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: keyin subjectssubjects withlossplacebo controlled
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetysafety ofevaluateefficacy and
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 11 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 45 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Filgotinib in the Treatment of Small Bowel Crohn's Disease (SBCD) NCT03046056 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Filgotinib in the Induction and Maintenance of Remission in Adults With Moderately to Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis NCT02914522 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Filgotinib in the Treatment of Perianal Fistulizing Crohn's Disease NCT03077412 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Filgotinib in Long-Term Extension Study of Adults With Crohn's Disease NCT02914600 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Assess Whether Etrolizumab is a Safe and Efficacious Treatment for Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT02394028 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.