Phase I Trial of Afatinib (BIBW 2992) and Dasatinib in Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-05-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularlung cancercell lungheartsmall cell
  Phrases that lowered it: receptorparticipantdiseasesparticipantstrial
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 35.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 34 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 20 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 87.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 518 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dasatinib and Erlotinib in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT00826449 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Dasatinib In Combination With Weekly Paclitaxel For Patients With Metastatic Breast Carcinoma CA 180 194 NCT00820170 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Dasatinib in Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCL) With Ex Vivo and In Vivo Assessment of Tumor Target Modulation NCT00858403 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Afatinib (BIBW 2992) in Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients With EGFR Mutation NCT01953913 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Phase I Study of Safety and Pharmacokinetics of Volitinib in Combination With Gefitinib in EGFR(+) NSCLC NCT02374645 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.