A Phase 1b Study of MEDI4736 in Combination With Tremelimumab in Subjects With Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-09-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: smallcell lunglung cancerpriorchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: labelopendays beforecombinationsubjects
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 101 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 24 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 121 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 1 Study of MEDI4736 in Combination With Tremelimumab in Subjects With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT02261220 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• A Global Study to Assess the Effects of MEDI4736 (Durvalumab), Given as Monotherapy or in Combination With Tremelimumab Determined by PD-L1 Expression Versus Standard of Care in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02352948 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A Global Study to Assess the Effects of MEDI4736 (Durvalumab) in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02087423 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• MEDI4736 (Anti PD-L1) Combined With Gefitinib in Subjects With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer(NSCLC). NCT02088112 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• A Phase I, Open-Label, Multicentre Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of MEDI4736 in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumours NCT01938612 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.