A Global Study to Assess the Effects of MEDI4736 (Durvalumab) in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: advancedcellcancerlocallyuncontrolled
  Phrases that lowered it: open labelpositivehepatitisdiseasesanti
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 146 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Global Study to Assess the Effects of MEDI4736 (Durvalumab), Given as Monotherapy or in Combination With Tremelimumab Determined by PD-L1 Expression Versus Standard of Care in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02352948 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A Global Study to Assess the Effects of MEDI4736 Following Concurrent Chemoradiation in Patients With Stage III Unresectable Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02125461 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• MEDI4736 (Anti PD-L1) Combined With Gefitinib in Subjects With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer(NSCLC). NCT02088112 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• A Phase I, Open-Label, Multicentre Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of MEDI4736 in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumours NCT01938612 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Study of AZD9291 Plus MEDI4736 Versus AZD9291 Monotherapy in NSCLC After Previous EGFR TKI Therapy in T790M Mutation Positive Tumours NCT02454933 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.