A Global Study to Assess the Effects of MEDI4736 Following Concurrent Chemoradiation in Patients With Stage III Unresectable Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-08-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellconcurrentstage iiilocally advancedcancer
  Phrases that lowered it: inflammatorybowelbleedingcolitisdisease
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 148 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1233 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Global Study to Assess the Effects of MEDI4736 (Durvalumab) in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02087423 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• A Global Study to Assess the Effects of MEDI4736 (Durvalumab), Given as Monotherapy or in Combination With Tremelimumab Determined by PD-L1 Expression Versus Standard of Care in Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02352948 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• M7824 With cCRT in Unresectable Stage III Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT03840902 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• Study of Durvalumab Given With Chemoradiation Therapy in Patients With Unresectable Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03519971 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Intensified Chemo-immuno-radiotherapy With Durvalumab for Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancers NCT04230408 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.