Docetaxel, Carboplatin, Trastuzumab, and Pertuzumab With or Without Estrogen Deprivation in Treating Patients With Hormone Receptor-Positive, HER2-Positive Operable or Locally Advanced Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (37 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tumorcancercellsradiationcontrolled
  Phrases that lowered it: painaccordingdayspreviousdrugs
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 803 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 169 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 44876 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Chemotherapy With or Without Trastuzumab After Surgery in Treating Women With Invasive Breast Cancer NCT01275677 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• Docetaxel and Cyclophosphamide Compared to Anthracycline-Based Chemotherapy in Treating Women With HER2-Negative Breast Cancer NCT01547741 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Phase II Randomized Trial Evaluating Neoadjuvant Therapy With Neratinib and/or Trastuzumab Followed by Postoperative Trastuzumab in Women With Locally Advanced HER2-positive Breast Cancer NCT01008150 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• BETH Study: Treatment of HER2 Positive Breast Cancer With Chemotherapy Plus Trastuzumab vs Chemotherapy Plus Trastuzumab Plus Bevacizumab NCT00625898 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated
• Comparison of Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy With Weekly Paclitaxel or Eribulin Followed by A/C in Women With Locally Advanced HER2-Negative Breast Cancer NCT01705691 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.