A Two-part Single and Multiple Dose Study to Assess the Safety , Pharmacokinetics and Effects of AZD3293 in Healthy Japanese Young and Elderly Volunteers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: multipleascendingsafety tolerabilitytolerability pharmacokineticspharmacokinetics and
  Phrases that lowered it: volunteershealthyrenalimpairmentkg
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1208 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 140 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD5213 After Single and Multiple Ascending Oral Doses in Healthy Young and Elderly Japanese Subjects NCT01335451 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics After Single Dose of AZD2516 to Japanese Healthy Subjects NCT00972049 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Assess Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetic (PK) of AZD1704 in Healthy Japanese Male and Non-Fertile Female Volunteers NCT00736788 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
• A Single Dose Study to Assess the Safety, Effects, and Blood and Urine Drug Levels of AZD3293 in Healthy Subjects NCT01739647 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD2423 Multiple Doses in Healthy Japanese Volunteers NCT01233830 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.