A Single Dose Study to Assess the Safety, Effects, and Blood and Urine Drug Levels of AZD3293 in Healthy Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimerascendingsafety tolerabilityof nontolerability pharmacokinetics
  Phrases that lowered it: healthykgvolunteersbodymass index
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 173 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: basic science (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 1142 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Relative Bioavailability Study to Assess Two Solid Formulations Compared to an Oral Solution of AZD3293 in Healthy Male and Non-Fertile Female Subjects NCT02039180 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Two-part Single and Multiple Dose Study to Assess the Safety , Pharmacokinetics and Effects of AZD3293 in Healthy Japanese Young and Elderly Volunteers NCT02005211 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Two-part Multiple Dose Study to Assess the Safety and Effects of AZD3293 in Healthy Elderly and Alzheimer's Patients NCT01795339 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• AZD8108 SAD/MAD in Healthy Volunteers NCT02248818 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• Assessment of Safety, Tolerability and Blood Concentrations of Single Doses of AZD3839 in Healthy Volunteers NCT01348737 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.