Study of the Safety and Effectiveness of SAMSCA® (Tolvaptan) in Children and Adolescents With Euvolemic or Hypervolemic Hyponatremia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-07-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: kidneyhoursacutepurposediabetes
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantand safetybleedingthe trial
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 136 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 0.08 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 8 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Extension Follow-up Trial to Evaluate the Long-term Safety of Children and Adolescent Participants With Euvolemic or Hypervolemic Hyponatremia NCT02020278 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
• Effects of Tolvaptan vs Fluid Restriction in Hospitalized Subjects With Dilutional Hyponatremia NCT01227512 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Assess the Efficacy, Safety and Pharmacokinetics of Intravenous Conivaptan (Vaprisol®) in Pediatric Subjects With Euvolemic or Hypervolemic Hyponatremia NCT01451411 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials terminated
• Tolvaptan for In-hospital Hyponatremia NCT01386372 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• A PK Study of 3 Dosages of Tolvaptan in Patients With Syndrome of Inappropriate Antidiuretic Hormone Secretion (SIADH) NCT02009878 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.