Clinical Study to Assess the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Macitentan in Subjects With Inoperable Chronic Thromboembolic Pulmonary Hypertension

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-09-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: pulmonarydiseasehypertensionacuteplacebo controlled
  Phrases that lowered it: fev1periodvisitscreeningto evaluate
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 84 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Clinical Study to Find Out if Macitentan is Effective and Safe in Japanese Patients With Chronic Thromboembolic Pulmonary Hypertension (CTEPH). NCT03809650 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
• Clinical Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Macitentan in Subjects With Inoperable Chronic Thromboembolic Pulmonary Hypertension NCT02060721 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Macitentan 75 mg in Inoperable or Persistent/Recurrent Chronic Thromboembolic Pulmonary Hypertension NCT04271475 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Find Out if Selexipag is Effective and Safe in Patients With Chronic Thromboembolic Pulmonary Hypertension When the Disease is Inoperable or Persistent/Recurrent After Surgery and/or Interventional Treatment NCT03689244 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Tolerability of Subcutaneously Administered Treprostinil Sodium in Patients With Severe (Non-operable) Chronic Thromboembolic Pulmonary Hypertension (CTREPH) NCT01416636 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.