A Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Macitentan 75 mg in Inoperable or Persistent/Recurrent Chronic Thromboembolic Pulmonary Hypertension

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalequal tochronicrandomizationacute
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsblood pressureaminotransferasemmhgto evaluate
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7254 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 34101 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Clinical Study to Assess the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Macitentan in Subjects With Inoperable Chronic Thromboembolic Pulmonary Hypertension NCT02021292 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study to Find Out if Macitentan is Effective and Safe in Japanese Patients With Chronic Thromboembolic Pulmonary Hypertension (CTEPH). NCT03809650 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Find Out if Selexipag is Effective and Safe in Patients With Chronic Thromboembolic Pulmonary Hypertension When the Disease is Inoperable or Persistent/Recurrent After Surgery and/or Interventional Treatment NCT03689244 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated
• Ambrisentan for Inoperable Chronic Thromboembolic Pulmonary Hypertension. NCT01884675 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials terminated
• The Efficacy and Safety of Initial Triple Versus Initial Dual Oral Combination Therapy in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension NCT02558231 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.