3-part Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics & Pharmacodynamics of Multiple Doses of CC-220 and Relative Bioavailability of a Formulated CC-220 Capsule

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: safety tolerabilitytolerability pharmacokineticspharmacodynamicsmultiplesubjects
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyscreeningbioavailabilityhepatitismmhg
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 29.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 8 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 31 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• 2-part Study to Assess Safety, Pharmacokinetics & Pharmacodynamics of CC-220 & Effect of Food on CC-220 in Healthy Subjects NCT01733875 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• First-in-human Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Single and Multiple Ascending Doses of CC-90001 NCT02110420 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Pharmacokinetics of Single Oral Doses of Formulated and Non-Formulated CC-122, and Food Effect Study NCT02049528 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Relative Bioavailability of a New CC-220 Capsule Formulation, Compared to a Reference CC-220 Capsule Formulation, in Healthy Adult Subjects NCT03135509 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics, and Food Effect of Single Ascending Doses of CC-92480 in Healthy Subjects NCT03803644 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.