First-in-human Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Single and Multiple Ascending Doses of CC-90001

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ascendingsafety tolerabilitysubjecttolerability andsubjects must
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyhepatitisor bloodsingledose
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 27.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 14 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 33 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• 3-part Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics & Pharmacodynamics of Multiple Doses of CC-220 and Relative Bioavailability of a Formulated CC-220 Capsule NCT02034773 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• 2-part Study to Assess Safety, Pharmacokinetics & Pharmacodynamics of CC-220 & Effect of Food on CC-220 in Healthy Subjects NCT01733875 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Effect of UV Exposure on the PD of Multiple Doses of CC-90001 and Pilot Food Effect Study NCT02321644 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Metabolism and Excretion of [14C]CC-90001 in Healthy Male Subjects NCT04655898 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Pharmacokinetics of Single Oral Doses of Formulated and Non-Formulated CC-122, and Food Effect Study NCT02049528 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.