D2212C00002 J-Phase II Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1212 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tolerabilitydiagnosisthe safetydose escalationescalation study
  Phrases that lowered it: visitevaluate theto evaluatefev1mmhg
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 143 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 2, Randomized Dose-ranging Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of Tralokinumab in Adults With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT01629667 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of SAR156597 in the Treatment of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT02345070 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• To Evaluate the Effect of Different Doses of SAR156597 Given to Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT01529853 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Study of TTI-101 in Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT05671835 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1b Study of IV PRM151 in Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT01254409 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.