A Novel Compound for Alcoholism Treatment
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (651 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-12-24, after 2014-01-03 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-12-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: dsmivdisorderdiagnosisdepressive
Phrases that lowered it: subjectshealthyscreeningbmiparticipants -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Keywords listed: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: not given (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- not given (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- not given (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 32
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Novel Compound for Alcoholism Treatment: A Translational Strategy - Part II NCT02707055 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials terminated
- Manipulating Ghrelin Signaling Via GOAT Inhibition in Alcohol Use Disorder NCT03896516 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Ghrelin for Alcohol Use in Non-Treatment-Seeking Heavy Drinkers NCT01779024 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Title: Effect of Opioid Receptor Modulation on Alcohol Self-Administration and Neural Response to Alcohol Cues in Heavy Drinkers: Role of OPRM1 Gene Variation NCT02639273 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety of PT150 (Formerly ORG34517) When it is Taken Concurrently With Alcohol NCT03548714 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.