Manipulating Ghrelin Signaling Via GOAT Inhibition in Alcohol Use Disorder
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (243 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-12-04, after 2021-06-22 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebodoublediagnosis ofsyndromeinformation
Phrases that lowered it: mgalcoholkgmalefemale -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 225 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 225 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Novel Compound for Alcoholism Treatment NCT02039349 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- A Novel Compound for Alcoholism Treatment: A Translational Strategy - Part II NCT02707055 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials terminated
- Ghrelin for Alcohol Use in Non-Treatment-Seeking Heavy Drinkers NCT01779024 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- A Study to Investigate the Safety and Efficacy of TMP-301 Compared to Placebo in Adult Patients With Alcohol Use Disorder NCT06648655 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
- Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety of PT150 (Formerly ORG34517) When it is Taken Concurrently With Alcohol NCT03548714 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.