Rivaroxaban Versus Warfarin in Acute Ischemic Stroke With Atrial Fibrillation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: recurrentinfarctionischemicstrokefailure
  Phrases that lowered it: administrationparticipantssingledays beforeaspirin
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 54 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dabigatran Etexilate for Secondary Stroke Prevention in Patients With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source (RE-SPECT ESUS) NCT02239120 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Early Administration of Edoxaban After Acute Ischemic Stroke in Patients With Non-valvular Atrial Fibrillation NCT03433235 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Blinded Randomized Trial of Anticoagulation to Prevent Ischemic Stroke and Neurocognitive Impairment in AF NCT02387229 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• PREvention of STroke in Intracerebral haemorrhaGE Survivors With Atrial Fibrillation NCT03996772 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• Rivaroxaban Versus Aspirin in Secondary Prevention of Stroke and Prevention of Systemic Embolism in Patients With Recent Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source (ESUS) NCT02313909 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.