PREvention of STroke in Intracerebral haemorrhaGE Survivors With Atrial Fibrillation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: brainpatientatrialstrokepatients
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsoralmedicationtrialrelevant
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 14 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 57 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 226 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 48751 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 23 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Apixaban After Anticoagulation-associated Intracerebral Haemorrhage in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation NCT02565693 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Start or STop Anticoagulants Randomised Trial (SoSTART) NCT03153150 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• A Study to Learn How Well the Study Treatment Asundexian Works and How Safe it is Compared to Apixaban to Prevent Stroke or Systemic Embolism in People With Irregular and Often Rapid Heartbeat (Atrial Fibrillation), and at Risk for Stroke NCT05643573 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
• Rivaroxaban Versus Warfarin in Acute Ischemic Stroke With Atrial Fibrillation NCT02042534 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Apixaban for Early Prevention of Recurrent Embolic Stroke and Hemorrhagic Transformation NCT02283294 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.