Apixaban for Early Prevention of Recurrent Embolic Stroke and Hemorrhagic Transformation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectrandomizationsubjectsstroketime of
  Phrases that lowered it: contraceptionabsolutecountmethodsplus
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 21577 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 63766 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Learn How Well the Study Treatment Asundexian Works and How Safe it is Compared to Apixaban to Prevent Stroke or Systemic Embolism in People With Irregular and Often Rapid Heartbeat (Atrial Fibrillation), and at Risk for Stroke NCT05643573 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
• Apixaban in Preventing Secondary Cancer Related Venous Thrombosis in Cancer Patients Who Have Completed Anticoagulation Therapy NCT03080883 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Apixaban or Dalteparin in Reducing Blood Clots in Patients With Cancer Related Venous Thromboembolism NCT02585713 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Apixaban for Treatment of Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source NCT02427126 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Early Administration of Edoxaban After Acute Ischemic Stroke in Patients With Non-valvular Atrial Fibrillation NCT03433235 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.