Apixaban for Treatment of Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-09-30, after 2015-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: mristroketherapylifeexpectancy
Phrases that lowered it: openbloodtrialinvestigatorperiod -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 30 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 258514 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 3 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 59 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 30 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 258514 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 58329 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 72.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- apixaban, aspirin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Rivaroxaban Plus ASA in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source(AREST-ESUS) NCT04273516 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
- Dabigatran Etexilate for Secondary Stroke Prevention in Patients With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source (RE-SPECT ESUS) NCT02239120 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- AtRial Cardiopathy and Antithrombotic Drugs In Prevention After Cryptogenic Stroke NCT03192215 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
- Acute Ischemic Stroke Interventional Study NCT03803007 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Evaluation Study of Early Administration of Evolocumab After Thrombolysis in Patients With Atherosclerotic Acute Ischemic Stroke NCT07301372 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.