AtRial Cardiopathy and Antithrombotic Drugs In Prevention After Cryptogenic Stroke

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustcardiacleftctatrial
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsmultipleinclusion exclusioninvestigatorindex
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 95 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 284 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 73190 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 409097 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dabigatran Etexilate for Secondary Stroke Prevention in Patients With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source (RE-SPECT ESUS) NCT02239120 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Apixaban for Treatment of Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source NCT02427126 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Rivaroxaban Plus ASA in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source(AREST-ESUS) NCT04273516 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Apixaban for Early Prevention of Recurrent Embolic Stroke and Hemorrhagic Transformation NCT02283294 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Platelet Reactivity in Acute Non-disabling Cerebrovascular Events NCT02506140 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.