Neoadjuvant Plus Adjuvant or Only Adjuvant Nab- Paclitaxel Plus Gemcitabine for Resectable Pancreatic Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: arteryrandomizationcancerpancreaticcarcinoma
  Phrases that lowered it: open28armcycleslabel
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 66.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7402 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Trial to Investigate Intensified Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT02125136 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Nab-paclitaxel and Gemcitabine vs Gemcitabine Alone as Adjuvant Therapy for Patients With Resected Pancreatic Cancer (the Apact Study) NCT01964430 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Study of Nintedanib and Chemotherapy for Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT02902484 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• Ibrutinib Combined With Gemcitabine and Nab-Paclitaxel in Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT02562898 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• First-line Treatment of Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer With Nab-paclitaxel and Gemcitabine NCT02564146 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.