Effect of Darapladib on Cantharidin-Induced Inflammatory Blisters in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (318 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-08-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects withchronicliverhepatitisprior
  Phrases that lowered it: visithealthylabelblood pressureasthma
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1912 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 327 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: basic science (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A 2-Part Trial in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes and in Healthy Subjects to Evaluate GSK1614235, a New Glucose Lowering Drug to Treat Type 2 Diabetes NCT00976261 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Trial to Assess the Safety of Oral SRT2104 and Its Effects on Vascular Dysfunction in Otherwise Healthy Cigarette Smokers and Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT01031108 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of LGD-6972 in Healthy Subjects and Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT01919684 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of GSK2330672 in Type 2 Diabetes Patients Taking Metformin NCT01929863 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• First-time-in-Human (FTIH) Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of Single (in Both Fed and Fasted States) or Repeat Doses of GSK3358699 NCT03426995 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.