Imiquimod, Fluorouracil, or Observation in Treating HIV-Positive Patients With High-Grade Anal Squamous Skin Lesions

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (313 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-05-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancercellstherapychemotherapyenrollment
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsscreening90investigatorbased on
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, urogenital: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Treatment in Preventing Anal Cancer in Patients With HIV and Anal High-Grade Lesions NCT02135419 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• VGX-3100 Delivered Intramuscularly (IM) Followed by Electroporation (EP) for the Treatment of HPV-16 and/or HPV-18 Related Anal or Anal/Peri-Anal, High Grade Squamous Intraepithelial Lesion (HSIL) in Individuals Seronegative for Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-1/2 NCT03499795 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Intra-Anally Administered Artesunate in Patients With High-Grade Anal Intraepithelial Neoplasia (AIN 2/3) NCT03100045 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Quadrivalent HPV Vaccine to Prevent Anal HPV in HIV-infected Men and Women NCT01461096 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Study of Topical ABI-1968 in Subjects With Precancerous Anal Lesions Resulting From Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Infection NCT03202992 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.