Intra-Anally Administered Artesunate in Patients With High-Grade Anal Intraepithelial Neoplasia (AIN 2/3)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-10-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerpatientschemotherapyradiationgrade
  Phrases that lowered it: 50 kgcd4femaleweight 50200
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 134 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 451 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 13 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Topical ABI-1968 in Subjects With Precancerous Anal Lesions Resulting From Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Infection NCT03202992 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Study of Topical ABI-1968 in Subjects With Precancerous Anal Lesions Resulting From Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Infection NCT03677960 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
• Imiquimod, Fluorouracil, or Observation in Treating HIV-Positive Patients With High-Grade Anal Squamous Skin Lesions NCT02059499 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Artesunate Ointment for the Treatment of High Grade Vulvar Intraepithelial Neoplasia (HSIL VIN2/3) NCT03792516 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial for Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Electrocoagulation vs Topic Sinecatechins vs Topic Cidofovir Within the Treatment to High-grade Anal Intraepithelial Neoplasia in HIV Homosexual Males NCT04055142 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.