PET Imaging of the Translocator Proteine Ligands (TSPO) With [18 F] DPA-714 Biomarker of NeuroInflammation in Cognitive Decline (NIDECO)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (201 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-05-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsimpairmentdisorderagechronic
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsadalzheimerbrainto moderate
• Primary purpose: diagnostic (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 60 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Imaging Inflammation in Alzheimer's Disease NCT02831283 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• The Relationship Between Neuropsychological Testing and MRI, PET and COBRE - Project 1: AIM 2 (GE-180) NCT03702816 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
• Quantitative Evaluation of [18F]T807 as a Potential PET Radioligand for Imaging Tau in Patients With Alzheimer's Disease NCT02370524 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Evaluation Comparing Tau PET Radiotracers, [18F]GTP1 and [18F]PI-2620 or [18F]MK-6240 in Subjects With Normal Cognition or Prodromal to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT04566003 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Tau Brain Imaging in Typical and Atypical Alzheimer's Disease (AD) NCT03022968 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.