A Study Into Pain Relief Given by ASP8477 for Peripheral Neuropathic Pain (Either Post-herpetic Neuralgia or Painful Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy) and Its Safety

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-02-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: peripheralstableneuropathyfailureischemic
  Phrases that lowered it: painand safetyalcoholefficacy anddrug
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 25 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Assess Analgesic Efficacy and Safety of ASP3662 in Subjects With Painful Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy NCT02372578 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of GSK3858279 in Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathic Pain NCT05838755 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
• Treatment of Neuropathic Pain Associated With Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy NCT01496365 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Analgesic Efficacy of 28 Days' Oral Administration of AZD2066 Compared With Placebo in Patients With Painful Diabetic Neuropathy NCT00857623 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of EMA401 in Patients With Painful Diabetic Neuropathy (PDN) NCT03297294 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.