Trial of Abiraterone Acetate Plus LHRH-therapy Versus Abiraterone Acetate Sparing LHRH-therapy in Patients With Progressive Chemotherapy-naïve Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer (SPARE)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-04-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticheartradiationcancerdl
  Phrases that lowered it: formulationtrialmaletabletopen label
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 19023 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase II Study of Increased-Dose Abiraterone Acetate in Patients With Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT01637402 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Apalutamide and Abiraterone Acetate in African American and Caucasian Men With Metastatic Castrate Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03098836 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Apalutamide and Gonadotropin-Releasing Hormone Analog With or Without Abiraterone Acetate in Treating Participants With Prostate Cancer NCT03279250 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Dose-Escalation and Efficacy Study of LAE001/Prednisone Plus Afuresertib Patients With m-CRPC NCT04060394 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• LHRH Analogue Therapy With Enzalutamide or Bicalutamide in Treating Patients With Hormone Sensitive Prostate Cancer NCT02058706 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.