Study of LEE011 With Fulvestrant and BYL719 or BKM120 in Advanced Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-04-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticlocallyiichemotherapyline
  Phrases that lowered it: open labelhormoneescalationbreast cancertrial
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Efficacy and Safety in Premenopausal Women With Hormone Receptor Positive, HER2-negative Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02278120 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• A Phase Ib Dose Escalation Study of the Combination of LEE011 With Letrozole and Dose Expansion of LEE011 With Hormonal Therapy for the Treatment of Pre-(With Goserelin) and Postmenopausal Women With Hormone Receptor Positive, HER2-negative, Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02333370 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Study of Letrozole With or Without BYL719 or Buparlisib, for the Neoadjuvant Treatment of Postmenopausal Women NCT01923168 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Study of the Molecular Features of Postmenopausal Women With HR+ HER2-negative aBC on First-line Treatment With Ribociclib and Letrozole and, in Patients With a PIK3CA Mutation, on Second-line Treatment With Alpelisib Plus Fulvestrant NCT03439046 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated
• Study for Women and Men With Hormone-receptor Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT03096847 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.