Study of Letrozole With or Without BYL719 or Buparlisib, for the Neoadjuvant Treatment of Postmenopausal Women

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-07-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patient hascancermetastaticrateto determine
  Phrases that lowered it: breast cancerher2receptorpositivetype diabetes
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 302 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 10 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• QUILT-2.015: A Study of AMG 479 With Exemestane or Fulvestrant in Postmenopausal Women With Hormone Receptor Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00626106 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Phase III Study of BKM120/Placebo With Fulvestrant in Postmenopausal Patients With Hormone Receptor Positive HER2-negative Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer Refractory to Aromatase Inhibitor NCT01610284 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• A Phase III Study of BKM120 With Fulvestrant in Patients With HR+,HER2-, AI Treated, Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Progressed on or After mTORi NCT01633060 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials terminated
• Study of LEE011 With Fulvestrant and BYL719 or BKM120 in Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02088684 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Trial of BKM120/Tamoxifen-combination in Patients With HR-pos, HER2-neg Breast Cancer NCT02404844 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.