Trial of BKM120/Tamoxifen-combination in Patients With HR-pos, HER2-neg Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-10-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticadvancedtherapycancercombination
  Phrases that lowered it: patient hasbreast cancertrialcriteria patientpositive
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase III Study of BKM120 With Fulvestrant in Patients With HR+,HER2-, AI Treated, Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Progressed on or After mTORi NCT01633060 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials terminated
• Study of Letrozole With or Without BYL719 or Buparlisib, for the Neoadjuvant Treatment of Postmenopausal Women NCT01923168 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Phase III Study of BKM120/Placebo With Fulvestrant in Postmenopausal Patients With Hormone Receptor Positive HER2-negative Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer Refractory to Aromatase Inhibitor NCT01610284 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Experimental Drug BKM120 With Paclitaxel in Patients With HER2 Negative, Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer, With or Without PI3K Activation NCT01572727 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• NeoPHOEBE: Neoadjuvant Trastuzumab + BKM120 in Combination With Weekly Paclitaxel in HER2-positive Primary Breast Cancer NCT01816594 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.