hATG+CsA vs hATG+CsA+Eltrombopag for SAA
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 27% of the time (33 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-12-31, after 2015-07-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: breastmdsanemiaeligibleenrollment
Phrases that lowered it: according109maleperiodtrial -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 50% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3850 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 15 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 8 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 50% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 3850 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1252 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 72.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 26.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- eltrombopag
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy and Safety of Eltrombopag + CSA in Patients With Moderate Aplastic Anemia (EMAA) NCT02773225 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
- Eltrombopag Combined With Cyclosporine as First Line Therapy in Patients With Severe Acquired Aplastic Anemia NCT02998645 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- A Phase II Dose-escalation Study Characterizing the PK of Eltrombopag in Pediatric Patients With Previously Untreated or Relapsed Severe Aplastic Anemia or Recurrent Aplastic Anemia NCT03025698 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Horse ATG/CsA in Aplastic Anemia Patients Unresponsive to or With a Suboptimal Response to Rabbit ATG/CsA Treatment NCT00944749 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- A Pilot Study of Fludarabine Plus Cyclophosphamide in Refractory Severe Aplastic Anemia NCT01187017 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.