Trial of Nivolumab vs Therapy of Investigator's Choice in Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Carcinoma (CheckMate 141)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-09-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: recurrentplatinumradiationtherapyhead
  Phrases that lowered it: clinical trialopen labelinvestigatoror suspectedknown or
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 113 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 428 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nivolumab or Nivolumab Plus Cisplatin, in Combination With Radiotherapy in Patients With Cisplatin-ineligible or Eligible Locally Advanced Squamous Cell Head and Neck Cancer NCT03349710 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Study of Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab Compared to the Standard of Care (Extreme Regimen) as First Line Treatment in Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck NCT02741570 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Study of Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab Versus Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab Placebo in Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck NCT02823574 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Versus Standard Treatment for Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer (MK-3475-040/KEYNOTE-040) NCT02252042 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• A Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) for First Line Treatment of Recurrent or Metastatic Squamous Cell Cancer of the Head and Neck (MK-3475-048/KEYNOTE-048) NCT02358031 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.