Study of Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab Versus Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab Placebo in Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-04-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcancerand neckhead andsquamous
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluateprotocol defineddefined inclusionapply
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 93 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8336 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 85.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab Compared to the Standard of Care (Extreme Regimen) as First Line Treatment in Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck NCT02741570 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Trial of Nivolumab vs Therapy of Investigator's Choice in Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Carcinoma (CheckMate 141) NCT02105636 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab or Nivolumab Plus Cisplatin, in Combination With Radiotherapy in Patients With Cisplatin-ineligible or Eligible Locally Advanced Squamous Cell Head and Neck Cancer NCT03349710 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Safety Testing of Adding Nivolumab to Chemotherapy in Patients With Intermediate and High-Risk Local-Regionally Advanced Head and Neck Cancer NCT02764593 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) or Placebo With Chemoradiation in Participants With Locally Advanced Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (MK-3475-412/KEYNOTE-412) NCT03040999 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.