Safety Testing of Adding Nivolumab to Chemotherapy in Patients With Intermediate and High-Risk Local-Regionally Advanced Head and Neck Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-02-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagecancerctcellradiation
  Phrases that lowered it: opensafety ofpackoralpatients
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 50922 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9912 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pembrolizumab in Combination With Cisplatin and Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy (IMRT) in Head and Neck Cancer NCT02777385 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• HPV-16 Vaccination and Pembrolizumab Plus Cisplatin for Intermediate Risk HPV-16-associated Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT04369937 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy & Nivolumab for Recurrent or Second Primary Head & Neck Squamous Cell Cancer NCT03521570 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Nivolumab in Combination With Paclitaxel in Subjects With Head and Neck Cancer Unable for Cisplatin-based Chemotherapy (NIVOTAX) NCT04282109 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• REirradiation and Programmed Cell Death Protein 1 (PD-1) Blockade On Recurrent Squamous Cell Head and Neck Tumors NCT03317327 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.