A Dose Escalation Study of ASP8273 in Subjects With Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Who Have Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Mutations

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-02-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lungcellsubjectdeterminensclc
  Phrases that lowered it: 20hcv14 dayshepatitiswithin 14
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 40 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 9 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of ASP8273 in Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor-Naïve Patients With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Harboring EGFR Mutations NCT02500927 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials terminated
• A Study of ASP8273 vs. Erlotinib or Gefitinib in First-line Treatment of Patients With Stage IIIB/IV Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Tumors With EGFR Activating Mutations NCT02588261 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• An Open Study of ASP8273 in Patients With Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Who Have Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Mutations NCT02192697 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy, Safety and Pharmacokinetics Study of Antroquinonol to Treat NSCLC NCT02047344 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1 Dose-escalation Study of OSI-906 and Erlotinib (Tarceva®) NCT00739453 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.