A Study of ASP8273 in Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor-Naïve Patients With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Harboring EGFR Mutations

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-06-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: msmultipleintervalsyndromeheart
  Phrases that lowered it: moderatepatients whoperiodpatients withstart
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 28 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 393 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Dose Escalation Study of ASP8273 in Subjects With Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Who Have Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Mutations NCT02113813 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• An Open Study of ASP8273 in Patients With Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Who Have Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Mutations NCT02192697 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
• A Study of ASP8273 vs. Erlotinib or Gefitinib in First-line Treatment of Patients With Stage IIIB/IV Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Tumors With EGFR Activating Mutations NCT02588261 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• A Study of ASP2215 in Combination With Erlotinib in Subjects With Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Activating Mutation-Positive (EGFRm+) Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Who Have Acquired Resistance to an EGFR Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor (TKI) NCT02495233 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy, Safety and Pharmacokinetics Study of Antroquinonol to Treat NSCLC NCT02047344 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.