A Phase III Trial Comparing Two Dose-dense, Dose-intensified Approaches (ETC and PM(Cb)) for Neoadjuvant Treatment of Patients With High-risk Early Breast Cancer (GeparOcto)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-01-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapycancerpatients mustpriorhigh
  Phrases that lowered it: her2heart90infarctiondays
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 122102 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Nab-Paclitaxel in High Risk Early Breast Cancer NCT01690702 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Assessing the Efficacy of Paclitaxel and Olaparib in Comparison to Paclitaxel / Carboplatin Followed by Epirubicin/Cyclophosphamide as Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Patients With HER2-negative Early Breast Cancer and Homologous Recombination Deficiency NCT02789332 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Addition of Carboplatin to Neoadjuvant Therapy for Triple-negative and HER2-positive Early Breast Cancer NCT01426880 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• TAC Versus TCX as Adjuvant Treatment for High-risk Her2-Negative Breast Cancer NCT01354522 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Nanoparticle-based Paclitaxel vs Solvent-based Paclitaxel as Part of Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for Early Breast Cancer (GeparSepto) NCT01583426 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.