Study of CX-4945 in Combination With Gemcitabine and Cisplatin for Frontline Treatment of Cholangiocarcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-08-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bowelcisplatingemcitabinecolitisdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsdiabetesfirst dosecombinationdrug
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Copanlisib (BAY 80-6946) in Combination With Gemcitabine and Cisplatin in Advanced Cholangiocarcinoma NCT02631590 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Gemcitabine and Cisplatin With or Without CPI-613 as First Line Therapy for Patients With Advanced Unresectable Biliary Tract Cancer (BilT-04) NCT04203160 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Comparing NUC-1031 Plus Cisplatin to Gemcitabine Plus Cisplatin in Patients With Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer NCT04163900 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated
• Study of D07001-Softgel Capsules in Subjects With Gastrointestinal Cancer in Dose-Escalation Phase and in Subjects With Biliary Tract Cancer in Dose-Expansion Phase NCT03531320 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Gemcitabine and Sorafenib in Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer (GEMSO) NCT00661830 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.