The Efficacy of Everolimus in Reducing Total Native Kidney Volume in Polycystic Kidney Disease Transplanted Recipients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-11-11, after 2014-10-14 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-11-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: kidneytransplantationrecipientscontraceptionegfr
Phrases that lowered it: openinhibitorseverolimusefficacymulticenter -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Keywords listed: 10 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 166 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 391 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 10 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 391 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 19.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 166 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 9004 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2309 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 91.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 29.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- everolimus
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study Evaluating the Benefit of Two Immunosuppressive Strategies on Renal Function NCT02334488 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- Non-inferiority Study of Safety and Efficacy of Everolimus With Low Dose Tacrolimus to Mycophenolate Mofetil With Standard Dose Tacrolimus in Kidney Transplant Recipients NCT01025817 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- Efficacy Regarding Renal Function of Everolimus in Combination With Specific Standard Immunosuppressive Regimen Lung Transplant Recipients NCT01404325 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
- Everolimus on CKD Progression in ADPKD Patients NCT01009957 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
- Sirolimus In Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease And Severe Renal Insufficiency NCT01223755 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.