Phase I Clinical Trial of Tremelimumab Plus MEDI3617 in Patients With Unresectable Stage III or Stage IV Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-09-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: enrollmentsubjectsdiseasechronicprior
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsproducttrialmalepatients with
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Trial of Tremelimumab in Patients With Previously Treated Metastatic Urothelial Cancer NCT03557918 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Study of Durvalumab in Combination With Tremelimumab in Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma NCT03075527 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• Immune Checkpoint Inhibition (Tremelimumab and/or MEDI4736) in Combination With Radiation Therapy in Patients With Unresectable Pancreatic Cancer NCT02311361 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Trial Of Hypofractionated Radiotherapy In Combination With MEDI4736 And Tremelimumab For Patients With Metastatic Melanoma And Lung, Breast And Pancreatic Cancers NCT02639026 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab in Treating Patients With Advanced Uveal Melanoma NCT02359851 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.