Trial of Tremelimumab in Patients With Previously Treated Metastatic Urothelial Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 33% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancermetastaticstagesubjectsubjects with
  Phrases that lowered it: investigatormalelesionsmmaminotransferase
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 75% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Improve Checkpoint-blockade Response in Advanced Urothelial Cancer NCT03871036 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Phase I Clinical Trial of Tremelimumab Plus MEDI3617 in Patients With Unresectable Stage III or Stage IV Melanoma NCT02141542 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Tailored ImmunoTherapy Approach With Nivolumab in Subjects With Metastatic or Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma NCT02917772 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Study of Durvalumab in Combination With Tremelimumab in Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma NCT03075527 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• Study of MT-6402 in Subjects With Advanced Solid Cancer That Expresses PD-L1 NCT04795713 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.