Natalizumab Subcutaneous Immunogenicity and Safety Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-06-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: sclerosismay applycriteria mayrelapsingprotocol defined
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetysafety ofthe efficacylabel
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 21.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 45 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 167 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of Multiple Doses of Natalizumab (BG00002) Administered Subcutaneously to Japanese Participants With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT05265728 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated
• Exploratory Study of the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Multiple Regimens of Natalizumab in Adult Participants With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis (MS) NCT01405820 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of EID of Natalizumab (BG00002) in Participants With RRMS Switching From Treatment With Natalizumab SID in Relation to Continued SID Treatment- Followed by Extension Study Comprising SC and IV Natalizumab Administration NCT03689972 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• PK and PD Study of Natalizumab in Pediatric Subjects With RRMS NCT01884935 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of the Biosimilar Natalizumab PB006 in Comparison to Tysabri® NCT04115488 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.