A Study to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of Multiple Doses of Natalizumab (BG00002) Administered Subcutaneously to Japanese Participants With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-05-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: multiplemriand pharmacodynamicsmssclerosis
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantscreeningevaluatevisit
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 29.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 309 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 166081 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Natalizumab Subcutaneous Immunogenicity and Safety Study NCT02142192 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated
• Exploratory Study of the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Multiple Regimens of Natalizumab in Adult Participants With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis (MS) NCT01405820 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of EID of Natalizumab (BG00002) in Participants With RRMS Switching From Treatment With Natalizumab SID in Relation to Continued SID Treatment- Followed by Extension Study Comprising SC and IV Natalizumab Administration NCT03689972 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of the Biosimilar Natalizumab PB006 in Comparison to Tysabri® NCT04115488 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Daclizumab in Participants With RRMS Switching From Natalizumab NCT02881567 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.