Progesterone for the Prevention of Miscarriage and Preterm Birth in Women With First Trimester Bleeding: PREEMPT Trial
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (130 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-02-28, after 2014-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: birthtrialeffect ofthe effectcompared
Phrases that lowered it: bleedingwomenhemorrhageultrasoundevidence -
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 67.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Maximum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 45 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 25% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4587 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 669 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 67.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- progesterone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Progesterone for Maintenance Tocolysis: A Randomized Placebo Controlled Trial NCT00946088 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
- Progesterone in Threatened Abortion NCT02950935 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated
- Progestagens for the Tertiary Prophylaxis of Preterm Delivery NCT01178788 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- Progesterone for the Management of Preterm, Premature Rupture of the Membranes: A Randomized Controlled Trial. NCT01050647 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- Progesterone Vaginal Pessary for Prevention of Preterm Twin Birth NCT02350231 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.