Progesterone in Threatened Abortion
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2018-05-02, after 2017-04-04 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-05-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heartpregnancymaintenancemgsubject
Phrases that lowered it: the efficacyinterferediseasesclinical studythe study -
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 57.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 37 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 16 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 7836 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1665 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 57.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- progesterone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Progesterone for the Prevention of Miscarriage and Preterm Birth in Women With First Trimester Bleeding: PREEMPT Trial NCT02145767 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Luteal Support in Artificial Vitrified/Warmed Cycles With Low Progesterone NCT04806919 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Ulipristal Acetate for Use in Early Pregnancy Loss NCT05216952 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Subcutaneous Progesterone Versus Vaginal Progesterone Gel for Luteal Phase Support in Patients Undergoing In-Vitro Fertilization (IVF) NCT00827983 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- Chinese Herbal Medicine (New Shoutai Wan) and/or Oral Progesterone Intervention Trial for Threatened Miscarriage NCT02633878 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.