Ulipristal Acetate for Use in Early Pregnancy Loss
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (130 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-04-30, after 2022-05-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: failuretherapycellacuteconcurrent
Phrases that lowered it: examinationhistorythe studyalcoholdisorder -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 101 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 67.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 687 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 687 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 101 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 16482 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 806 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 67.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 6.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- misoprostol, ulipristal
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Letrozole and Misoprostol for Early Pregnancy Loss Management NCT06452719 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- Comparative Effectiveness of Pregnancy Failure Management Regimens NCT02012491 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
- Blocking Mifepristone Action With Progesterone NCT03774745 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated
- Progesterone in Threatened Abortion NCT02950935 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated
- Comparing Buccal and Vaginal Misoprostol in Management of Early Pregnancy Loss NCT02141555 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.