Chinese Herbal Medicine (New Shoutai Wan) and/or Oral Progesterone Intervention Trial for Threatened Miscarriage
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (169 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-12-31, after 2017-10-20 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebopaincontrolleddiseaseto determine
Phrases that lowered it: arthritisrheumatoidasthmathis trialtrial is -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: factorial (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 57.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, urogenital: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 8488 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- factorial (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 37 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 8488 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1457 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 57.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- progesterone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Mifepristone and Misoprostol Versus Misoprostol Alone in the Medical Management of Missed Miscarriage NCT03065660 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Progesterone in Threatened Abortion NCT02950935 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated
- Randomized Double-blind Controlled Trial of Use of Dydrogesterone in Threatened Miscarriage NCT02128685 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- Progesterone for the Prevention of Miscarriage and Preterm Birth in Women With First Trimester Bleeding: PREEMPT Trial NCT02145767 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Sildenafil Citrate in Early Unexplained Recurrent Pregnancy Loss NCT03766594 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.