Smoking Cessation Versus Long-term Nicotine Replacement Among High-risk Smokers
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (146 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-12-31, after 2014-05-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: copdpatientidentifiedleadunstable
Phrases that lowered it: long termtherapypatientstreatmentweeks -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 30.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 27 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 18.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 17 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 22599 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1086 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 30.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- nicotine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Evaluate Harm Reduction Products as a Second Line Intervention for Adult Smokers Who Do Not Quit With NRT NCT06088862 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials terminated
- Smoking Relapse Prevention Among COPD Ex-smokers NCT02888444 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
- Extended Varenicline Treatment for Smoking Among Cancer Patients NCT01756885 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Combination of Nicotine Replacement Therapy (NRT) and Varenicline to Increase Cessation of Tobacco (CONVICT Study) NCT01184664 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Facilitating Smoking Cessation With Reduced Nicotine Cigarettes NCT02796391 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.