Oral Bacterial Extract for the Prevention of Wheezing Lower Respiratory Tract Illness

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (143 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationparentillnessguardiansurgery
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmaparticipantparticipantsrespiratoryrun in
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 31 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 0.5 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 1.5 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Treatment of Preschool Children With Upper Respiratory Tract Illnesses Using Azythromycin and Lower Respiratory Tract Symptoms Using Oral Corticosteroids. NCT01272635 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• CARE Network Maintenance Versus Intermittent Inhaled Steroids in Wheezing Toddlers (MIST) NCT00675584 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Study on the Immunogenicity and Safety of 3 Different Dose Concentrations of a Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccine in Infants and Toddlers NCT06705140 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials terminated
• Study of a Single Intramuscular Dose of Nirsevimab in the Prevention of Hospitalizations Due to Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infection in Healthy Term and Preterm Infants During the First Year of Life NCT05437510 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Safety Study of Albuterol Spiromax® in Subjects With Asthma NCT01698320 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.